On June 19, 2025, a landmark event took place in Kunming, China, where senior diplomatic officials from China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh met for the first-ever trilateral dialogue. Though branded as a “foreign secretary-level consultation,” this meeting signals the potential birth of a new regional grouping in South Asia—one that may challenge the current strategic equilibrium and hint at deeper geopolitical realignments.
While the nations involved have stressed that the meeting was not political in nature or directed at any third party, the very timing and structure of this gathering, alongside China’s known ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, raise crucial questions. What happens if this trilateral group formalizes into a strategic bloc? What are its objectives? And most importantly, what are the global and regional implications, especially for India?
What is This Emerging Group?
The trilateral meeting included:
- Sun Weidong, Vice Foreign Minister of China
- Ruhul Alam Siddique, Acting Foreign Secretary of Bangladesh
- Imran Ahmed Siddiqui, Additional Foreign Secretary of Pakistan
The dialogue focused on areas like trade, infrastructure, digital economy, climate change, maritime cooperation, education, and health. The three nations also agreed to establish a joint working group to institutionalize this mechanism and explore further collaboration.
Not Just an Economic Dialogue
Despite official statements denying political motives, this trilateral meeting is being seen by many analysts as an attempt to create an alternative power platform in South Asia, potentially sidelining or challenging India's long-standing influence in the region.
If This Becomes a Formal Group: What Will It Look Like?
If this trilateral evolves into a permanent, structured alliance, it could take several shapes:
1. A South Asian Regional Bloc Without India
Modeled as a soft substitute for the paralyzed SAARC, which has remained dormant since 2016, largely due to India-Pakistan tensions.
2. A China-Led Belt and Road Extension Hub
China could integrate this bloc into its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework, using Bangladesh’s strategic coastline and Pakistan’s CPEC (China–Pakistan Economic Corridor) infrastructure to deepen its economic reach.
3. A Counter-Narrative to the Quad & Indo-Pacific Strategy
As India strengthens ties with the Quad (US, Japan, Australia, India) and other democratic nations, this trilateral bloc could serve as a balancing pole in South Asia, with China as the center of gravity.
Geopolitical Implications on the World
1. Expansion of China’s Influence
This bloc could mark a significant geostrategic expansion for China:
- Establishing a stronger presence in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea
- Enhancing maritime routes essential for Chinese trade and oil security
- Creating diplomatic leverage in South Asia beyond its immediate neighbors
2. Fragmentation of South Asia
Rather than a united South Asian identity through SAARC or BIMSTEC, this grouping introduces a new layer of division, encouraging selective engagement and weakening broader regional integration.
3. Challenge to Western Influence
By formalizing this alliance, China might be attempting to reshape South Asian multilateralism, reducing the strategic space available to the US, EU, Japan, and Australia, all of whom are invested in containing China's rise.
Implications for India
1. Erosion of Regional Leadership
India has traditionally held a central role in South Asian politics and development. If Bangladesh aligns more deeply with China and Pakistan through this bloc, India’s diplomatic weight in its neighborhood could diminish.
2. Strategic Encirclement (The “String of Pearls”)
This move could accelerate China’s so-called “String of Pearls” strategy—establishing a network of naval and economic bases around India.
Gwadar (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Chittagong (Bangladesh) could be synchronized in a coordinated strategy to limit Indian maritime freedom.
3. Security Risks on Two Fronts
India already faces significant border tensions with China (Ladakh, Arunachal) and Pakistan (LoC, terrorism). A formal trilateral group may lead to more coordinated pressure from both sides, especially in regional forums and multilateral negotiations.
4. Loss of Influence in Bangladesh
India has maintained historically strong ties with Bangladesh since its independence. However, if Dhaka tilts toward China, it could mark a diplomatic setback, reducing India’s influence in trade, water sharing, defense, and cultural cooperation.
How Should India Respond?
- Strengthen Existing Alliances
- India may now fast-track its engagements with:BIMSTEC, Quad, Indo-Pacific Maritime Cooperation frameworks
- India–Japan–Australia trilateral trade efforts
- Re-engage Bangladesh
- India should address irritants in the India-Bangladesh relationship, such as: Teesta water-sharing deadlock, Border killings and fencing issues, Trade imbalances
- India needs to proactively reinvest diplomatically and economically in Dhaka to prevent it from drifting into the China-Pakistan orbit.
- Promote an Inclusive Regional Order
Rather than reacting with suspicion alone, India could propose new regional economic or climate-oriented initiatives that offer cooperation without zero-sum framing.
The formation of a China–Pakistan–Bangladesh trilateral group, if fully institutionalized, could be a game-changer in South Asian geopolitics. While the group currently emphasizes economic cooperation and denies strategic intentions, its potential implications—especially for India—are profound. From maritime influence to regional leadership, India could face new challenges in an increasingly multipolar and fragmented South Asian order.
The road ahead will depend on how diplomatically agile India remains, how committed Bangladesh is to non-alignment, and how far China pushes its ambitions beyond the Himalayas.
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